One of the most fascinating true life stories about the crucial role of planning emerges from the race to the South Pole in 1911. This was the race between the successful expedition led by Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen and the failed one led by Robert Falcon Scott.
In theory, setting off within days of each other, it should have been a perfectly matched competition. Both men were similar ages, and each could boast plenty of experience in polar exploration, and they both faced the similar hazardous weather conditions.
So why did Amundsen succeed where Scott and his entire team perished and died? As you continue to read, you should note that Scott’s preparation paled in comparison, and significant differences in their planning emerged.
- Amundsen adopted an intensive and long-term fitness regimen. He travelled more than 3,000 kilometres from Norway to Spain by bicycle.
- He planned for scenarios he might only face once in a lifetime, such as testing the usefulness of raw dolphin as a source of nutrition.
- Amundsen used pre-prepared navigation sheets that simplified the calculations when they were tired and cold. Four out of his team of five were qualified navigators. Amundsen’s expedition used a sextant during the journey, which is a relatively light and simple piece of equipment. He also prepared by attended a symposium on how to fix position at high latitudes.
- Scott used a theodolite which is heavier and requires more mental arithmetic. Scott also lacked navigators opting for only one per team. Scott dismissed a request for navigational training.
- Amundsen studied the Inuit people in northern Canada and discovered how it was better to move slow and steady in cold conditions so that sweat couldn’t form and turn to ice.
- Amundsen learned that dogs thrive in Antarctic conditions and spent time with the Inuit people in the north of Canada where he learned to dogsled.
- Scott selected a mixture of ponies entirely unsuited to Antarctic conditions, and motor sledges, which were brand new, and untested. Scott also chose to completely exclude the motor sledge engineer from his expedition party.
- One of the original 3 motor sledges was lost through thin ice on unloading it from the ship. The two remaining motor sledges failed early in the main expedition and were abandoned.
- Amundsen used canisters that left his sledges permanently lashed and loaded. Scott’s team had to unload, and load, and re-lash their sledge at every camp, no matter what the weather.
- Nansen, the most famous explorer of the day, told Scott to take “dogs, dogs and more dogs”. Scott’s team had to pull their sledges themselves, moving far more slowly and exhausting themselves along the way.
- Amundsen camped on the Ross Ice Shelf at the Bay of Whales, which is 96 km closer to the pole than Scott’s camp.
- Scott’s chose his base at Cape Evans on Ross Island. He did so based solely on his previous geological expedition in the same area. However, he knew it to be a poor route to the pole due to ice melting, and having to make detours due to its crevasses. Both meant a longer journey.
- Amundsen’s route was through unknown land, and Scott’s route was largely the same as that charted previously by Shackleton.
- Amundsen laid down supply caches along the route, at very short and regular intervals. He then marked them with black flags to be visible from miles away on their way back.
- Amundsen stored 3 tons of supplies for a 5 man starting team. Scott stored just 1 ton of supplies for 17 men. It would be the end for Scott’s team if he missed even one of his stock supplies.
- Scotts’ daily supplies and haulage had to include fuel for the motor sledges, and fodder for the ponies, while Edmundsen’s dogs could survive on the plentiful seal and penguin meat.
- Amundsen carried enough extra supplies that he would be able to miss every one of his stock supplies and still complete the journey.
- Amundsen brought four thermometers. Scott brought one, which broke.
- Amundsen recruited a team of well experienced Norwegian skiers. Nansen had also advised Scott that he should train his expedition team to ski, but although a few began to learn, Scott made no arrangements for compulsory training for the full party.
- On his return trip, Scott chose to man-haul 14kg of rock samples. This highlights the confusion over purpose and objective. A geological expedition vs a discovery and survival expedition.
- With a starting team of 65, Scott lost five men including himself returning from the pole.
- Amundsen and his entire team of just 19 men returned to Norway safely.
On 15 December 1911, Amundsen and his team planted the Norwegian flag in the South Pole. Scott was still 360 miles from the pole, man-hauling sledges, and it took another 34 days to get there. When Scott arrived at the pole, Amundsen was only 8 days from his return to home base.
Amundsen’s expedition returned to base camp after 99 days enroute and no casualties. [Note that this is pretty close to our recommended 90 Day Plan 🙂 ]. The approximate date of Scott dying was 150 days after embarking.
It will surprise many readers that on an epic journey into the unknown, and fraught with challenges, Amundsen reached home base precisely on the day they planned.
Scott appears to have operated, hoping everything would work out. In his journal, discovered with his frozen body years later, Scott complained about his “bad luck”.
In this epic story, some fundamentals of planning are brought home:
- For Scott and Amundsen, their results were directly aligned to the quality of their planning.
- Scott set himself up for failure. Amundsen set himself up for success.
- On reflection, Amundsen’s plan seems clear, logical, and obvious, while Scott’s plan was questionable from the outset.
- Amundsen invested well in preparation, and focussed on being able to execute his plan with speed.
- Amundsen’s planning was future-proofed through ‘what if’ scenarios with plans B, C, and D.
- A clear roadmap and a documented plan forces accountability and responsibility.
- Plans require adaptability. This is OK. Accept this and follow your new plan.
- Risks can be turned into opportunities, but you need to have identified them as risks first; otherwise, they’ll come at you as a crisis, and then you’re on the back foot. Scott’s expedition was in crisis mode almost from the outset.
- The ‘weight’ of a decision is reduced when you’ve had time to consider and calculate its upside and downside. This is the upside of investing time in planning.
While I’m not suggesting that you trek to the South Pole to test your planning abilities (J), look at your current priorities, projects, goals, targets, and ambitions and ask… Am I failing to plan or planning to fail?
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paul@40megahertzconsulting.co.za
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